The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990. For more information
Dernière publication :
February 10, 2023
Prochaine publication : May
2023
FORECASTERS SEE HIGHER GROWTH AND STRONGER LABOR MARKET IN 2023
The outlook for the U.S. economy in 2023 looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago, according to 37 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 0.6 percent this quarter and 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2023, up from the previous predictions of 0.2 percent in each quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 1.3 percent in 2023, up from the projection of 0.7 percent in the survey of three months ago.
A downward revision to the path for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for growth. The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will increase from 3.5 percent this quarter to 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. In the previous survey, the unemployment rate was forecast to rise from 3.8 percent to 4.4 percent over the same period. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate to average 3.8 percent this year, marking a downward revision from the previous estimate of 4.2 percent.
On the employment front, the panelists have revised upward their estimates for job gains in 2023. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 217,800 in 2023, up from 143,600 projected three months ago.
Source: Fed Philadelphia, Feb. 10, 2023
Nec piget dicere avide magis hanc insulam populum Romanum invasisse quam iuste. Ptolomaeo enim rege foederato nobis et socio ob aerarii nostri angustias iusso sine ulla culpa proscribi ideoque hausto veneno voluntaria morte deleto et tributaria facta est et velut hostiles eius exuviae classi inpositae in urbem advectae sunt per Catonem, nunc repetetur ordo gestorum.
Nec piget dicere avide magis hanc insulam populum Romanum invasisse quam iuste. Ptolomaeo enim rege foederato nobis et socio ob aerarii nostri angustias iusso sine ulla culpa proscribi ideoque hausto veneno voluntaria morte deleto et tributaria facta est et velut hostiles eius exuviae classi inpositae in urbem advectae sunt per Catonem, nunc repetetur ordo gestorum. :
Les phases et les mouvements de l’indicateur composite avancé seront vraisemblablement suivis par ceux du cycle économique.
Nec piget dicere avide magis hanc insulam populum Romanum invasisse quam iuste. Ptolomaeo enim rege foederato nobis et socio ob aerarii nostri angustias iusso sine ulla culpa proscribi ideoque hausto veneno voluntaria morte deleto et tributaria facta est et velut hostiles eius exuviae classi inpositae in urbem advectae sunt per Catonem, nunc repetetur ordo gestorum.:
Inflation: here.
Nec piget dicere avide magis hanc insulam populum Romanum invasisse quam iuste. Ptolomaeo enim rege foederato nobis et socio ob aerarii nostri angustias iusso sine ulla culpa proscribi ideoque hausto veneno voluntaria morte deleto et tributaria facta est et velut hostiles eius exuviae classi inpositae in urbem advectae sunt per Catonem, nunc repetetur ordo gestorum.
Nec piget dicere avide magis hanc insulam populum Romanum invasisse quam iuste. Ptolomaeo enim rege foederato nobis et socio ob aerarii nostri angustias iusso sine ulla culpa proscribi ideoque hausto veneno voluntaria morte deleto et tributaria facta est et velut hostiles eius exuviae classi inpositae in urbem advectae sunt per Catonem, nunc repetetur ordo gestorum.