The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.
Dernière publication :
November 13, 2023
Prochaine publication :
Fabruary 2024
Forecasters Upgrade Growth and Job Gains in 2023 and 2024
The outlook for the U.S. economy looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 1.3 percent this quarter, up slightly from the prediction of 1.2 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.4 percent in 2023 and 1.7 percent in 2024. These annual projections are 0.3 and 0.4 percentage point higher than the estimates in the previous survey.
The forecasters see little change in the outlook for the unemployment rate from the survey of three months ago. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate will increase from 3.7 percent in 2023 to 4.0 percent in 2026. These projections are within 0.1 percentage point of the projections from the last survey.
On the employment front, the forecasters predict higher job gains for 2023 and 2024. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment imply job gains at a monthly rate of 296,500 in 2023 and 120,000 in 2024, up from the previous estimate of 288,600 and 94,800, respectively. (These annual-average projections are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Source: Fed Philadelphia, Nov. 13, 2023