The Livingston Survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph Livingston. It is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations. It summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took responsibility for the survey in 1990.

Dernière publication : Décembre 2023
Prochaine publication : Juin 2024

Commentary

Forecasters Project Near-Steady Real GDP Growth and a Steady Unemployment Rate for 2024

The 23 participants in the December Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the second half of 2023, compared with their projections in the June 2023 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, expect 3.1 percent annualized growth in real GDP during the second half of 2023. They project 1.0 percent annualized growth over the first half of 2024. The forecasters predict that real GDP will grow 1.2 percent at an annual rate in the second half of 2024, nearly the same rate they see for the first half of the year. (Source: Fed Philadelphia, 15 Dec’ 23)

Quarterly Variables

RGDPX


GDPX


BFIX


CPAT


List

  1. RGDPX: Real Gross Domestic Product
    Billions of real dollars. Seasonally adjusted. Annual rate. Prior to the surveys of 1992, real GNP.

  2. GDPX: Nominal Gross Domestic Product
    Billions of dollars. Seasonally adjusted. Annual rate. Prior to the surveys of 1992, nominal GNP.

  3. BFIX: Real Business Fixed Investment
    Billions of real dollars. Seasonally adjusted. Annual rate. Prior to the surveys of 1990, new plant and equipment expenditures.

  4. CPAT: Corporate Profits After Tax
    Billions of dollars. Seasonally adjusted. Annual rate. With inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj). Prior to surveys of 2006, without inventory valuation adjustment and capital consumption adjustment.


Monthly Variables

IP


TPHS


PPI


CPI


UNPR


WMFG


RTTR


AUTODF


List

  1. IP: Industrial Production Index
    Index level. Seasonally adjusted.

  2. TPHS: Total Private Housing Starts
    Millions of units. Annual rate. Seasonally adjusted. Prior to the surveys of 1969, nonfarm housing starts.

  3. PPI: Producer Price Index for Finished Goods
    Prior to the June 2014 Livingston survey, our measure of the PPI was that for finished goods according to the Stage of Processing (SOP) aggregation system. Following the change in BLS’s procedures, the survey switched to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system for the PPI for finished goods. Seasonally adjusted index level. Prior to the survey of December 2004, not seasonally adjusted index level.

  4. CPI: Consumer Price Index
    Seasonally adjusted index level. Prior to the survey of December 2004, not seasonally adjusted index level.

  5. UNPR: Civilian Unemployment Rate
    Percentage points. Seasonally adjusted.

  6. WMFG: Average Weekly Earnings in Manufacturing
    Dollars per week. Not seasonally adjusted.

  7. RTTR: Nominal Retail Sales and Food Services
    Billions of dollars. Monthly rate. Seasonally adjusted. Retail sales prior to switch from SIC to NAICS.

  8. AUTODF: Auto Sales, Domestic plus Imported, Retail
    Millions of units. Annual rate. Seasonally adjusted.


Daily Variables

PRIME


TBOND


TBILL


SPIF


List

  1. PRIME: Prime Interest Rate
    Annualized percentage points. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  2. TBOND: Rate on 10-year Treasury Bond
    Annualized percentage points. Constant maturity. Prior to the survey of December 2002, rate on 30-year Treasury bond. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  3. TBILL: Rate on 3-month Treasury Bill
    Annualized percentage points. Discount basis. Secondary market. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  4. SPIF: S&P 500 stock Price Index
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.