The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.

Dernière publication : November 13, 2023
Prochaine publication : Fabruary 2024

Commentary

Forecasters Upgrade Growth and Job Gains in 2023 and 2024

The outlook for the U.S. economy looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 1.3 percent this quarter, up slightly from the prediction of 1.2 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.4 percent in 2023 and 1.7 percent in 2024. These annual projections are 0.3 and 0.4 percentage point higher than the estimates in the previous survey.

The forecasters see little change in the outlook for the unemployment rate from the survey of three months ago. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate will increase from 3.7 percent in 2023 to 4.0 percent in 2026. These projections are within 0.1 percentage point of the projections from the last survey.

On the employment front, the forecasters predict higher job gains for 2023 and 2024. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment imply job gains at a monthly rate of 296,500 in 2023 and 120,000 in 2024, up from the previous estimate of 288,600 and 94,800, respectively. (These annual-average projections are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Source: Fed Philadelphia, Nov. 13, 2023

U.S. Business Indicators

NGDP


PGDP


CPROF


UNEMP


EMP


INDPROD


HOUSING


TBILL


TBOND


List

  1. NGDP: Nominal Gross National
    Annualized percentage points. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  2. PGDP: Price Index For Gross National Product
    Annualized percentage points. Constant maturity. Prior to the survey of December 2002, rate on 30-year Treasury bond. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  3. CPROF: Corporate Profits After Rate
    Annualized percentage points. Discount basis. Secondary market. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  4. UNEMP: Civilian Unemployment Rate
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  5. EMP: Nonfarm Payroll Employment
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  6. INDPROD: Industrial Production Index
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  7. HOUSING: Housing Starts
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  8. TBILL: 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  9. TBOND: 10-Year Treasury Bond Rate
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.


Real GDP and Its Components

RGDP


RCONSUM


RNRESIN


RRESINV


RFEDGOV


RSLGOV


RCBI


REXPORT


List

  1. RGDP: Real Gross National Product
    Annualized percentage points. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  2. RCONSUM: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
    Annualized percentage points. Constant maturity. Prior to the survey of December 2002, rate on 30-year Treasury bond. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  3. RNRESIN: Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
    Annualized percentage points. Discount basis. Secondary market. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  4. RRESINV: Real Federal Government Expenditure & Gross Investment
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  5. RFEDGOV: Real Federal Government Expenditure & Gross Investment
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  6. RSLGOV: Real State and Local Government Consumption Expenditure & Gross Investment
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  7. RCBI: Real Change in Private Inventories
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  8. REXPORT: Real Net Exports of Goods and Services
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.


CPI and CPE Inflation

CPI


CORECPI


PCE


COREPCE


List

  1. CPI: CPI Inflation Rate
    Annualized percentage points. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  2. CORECPI: Core CPI Inflation Rate
    Annualized percentage points. Constant maturity. Prior to the survey of December 2002, rate on 30-year Treasury bond. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  3. PCE: PCE Inflation Rate
    Annualized percentage points. Discount basis. Secondary market. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.

  4. COREREPCE: Core PCE Inflation Rate
    Index level. Forecasts are for the last day of the period.